The first [reason Harris cannot win] is history - no Ontario premier, indeed no provincial premier - has ever gone on to be elected prime minister of Canada. The second is language - Harris speaks no French, which doesn't bode well for a televised leaders' debate.
Moreover, he is bitterly remembered among franco-Ontarians as the premier who tried to close their French-language Montfort hospital in the process of creating a superhospital in Ottawa.
Ah, the crux of the matter. Cross the Francophones and you'll pay. That is another ploy that has been used to great advantage by Francophones throughout the country. No matter how ridiculous their demands, they hold a noisy protest; they stick together and usually get their way because no politician dares refuse them. To cross them invites ballot box revenge. Not one of them thinks of costs when they want something; they just bloc vote and to the devil with the rest of Canada. What a recipe for maintaining Francophone power! NJC
And this in a province where they still talk about Regulation 17, the infamous 1912 provincial edict severely restricting the teaching of French in both public and separate schools in Ontario. It's the symbolism, stupid!
A Harris leadership bid would also have to deal with other pages from his history as premier . . . Walkerton . . . Ipperwash. . . .
Do you believe Harris was personally responsible for the brothers who failed to do their jobs in Walkerton? Do you believe that Dudley George who was shot at Ipperwash was not a gun-toting threat confronting police in a violent confrontation when he was shot? I am sceptical based on what I've read of the vaunted Native Warriors movement around Canada to areas of confrontation with non-natives, their anti-non-native speeches, their demands, and their gun-running. NJC
Those are a bunch of reasons for Harris to do some hard thinking about getting into this.
In larger historical terms, Ontario premiers are regarded in the rest of the country as representing the interests of Canada's wealthy industrial heartland.
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As to his lack of French, it is asking a lot for him to start taking immersion courses at the age of 58. And the Conservative Party thought it had settled that question 20 years ago when it chose Brian Mulroney as its leader.
All through the leadership campaign of 1983, Mulroney in his stump speech always asked English-speaking Canadians if they would vote for someone who spoke no English. They would always shake their heads. Then why, he asked, would they ask French-speaking Canadians to vote for someone who spoke no French? Then Mulroney would throw in the gift of 100 seats in French Canada the Tories always gave the Liberals as a starting point. It was the argument he used to close the deal with the Tory rank and file.
Here it is again -- the poison pill. If leftist media can convince you that he has not a hope in H*** of leading a united right to an election win throughout Canada, particularly because he does not speak French, then, you won't vote for him and the left-wing media have rid the Liberals of a viable opponent. Think about that conservative Canadians. They want you to believe that 70-75% of this country must be bilingual to EVER run the country. Hogwash! This started with Trudeau and it is time it stopped. It has harmed relations across this country, hopefully not irreparably. NJC
Harris represents a different perspective, and he would begin from a position of strength in seat-rich Ontario. But he was also a conviction politician, whose Common Sense Revolution left his province sorely divided about his leadership. Moreover, Ontarians see themselves voting in the larger national interest and they see that as including Quebec, just as Quebecers often look across the Ottawa River to how Ontario is going.
Getting a war chest for Harris would be the least of his problems. There is talk in knowledgeable circles on Bay St. that such a pot already exists. . . before corporate donations are phased out in the election and leadership finance reforms take effect at year's end.
So the question for Harris is not whether the money is there, or whether he can win the leadership of a united right. There's no doubt he would begin as the front-runner, although both Stephen Harper of the Alliance and Tory Peter MacKay, among others, might make a spirited run of it.
The question is whether Harris can win the country. Based on Canadian history, as well as his own, the answer is no.
You're not likely to hear anything positive from MacDonald, obviously -- nothing like balance. A serious commentator trying to be fair would include the negative that Harris faced on coming into office, then the positive steps Harris took--and keeping his electoral promises--to rectify the situation of a province running out of control -- thus giving some rationale for his actions in governing Ontario as he did. But there was nary a blip of positive comment nor explanation, was there? NJC
